Gun Regulations are big news right now. Of course, no one wants a repeat of Newtown. Bust, as always when it comes to guns, passions reign. The NRA shouts“Guns make you safer. Because the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.” And the Left shouts back, “We need more
gun regulations. That's the only way to keep our streets safe.”
Being a skeptic by nature, I wanted to find some data to analyze. I
wanted the data to be relatively clean, coming from a reliable, unbiased
source. Finding violent crime data was
easy. The US Census Bureau provided some very clean data on violent crime rates by state.
I was a bit more pressed when it came to data on Gun
regulations. The only place I could find online that provided a clean,
easy-to-use “gun law scorecard” was the Brady Campaign. But Brady tends to be advocates
for gun control. And, thus, potentially unreliable. But they did seem to do a
decent job of quantifying the laws that a state had on the books. So,
instead of raw scores here, I took a state’s rank in the gun violence score
card.
The completed data table is posted at the bottom of this
page.
The results?
- There appears to be no correlation between gun regulations and overall violent crime rates.
- A state’s Brady Gun Law rank accounted for less than 1% of the observed variation on violent crime rates (to be exact, .0.67%).
The results throw into dispute claims by both sides in the
gun regulation environment...
- NRA’s claim -- “Looser gun regulations decrease violent crime rates.” BUNK. If it were true, we'd see a steadier relationship, with laxer gun policies leading to lower violent crime rates.
- The Left’s claim -- “Better gun regulations lower crime rates.” BUNK. If it were true, we'd see a stronger correlation between strong gun regulations and less violence
These results also square with the UN data which I analyzed and posted earlier that shows that there is no correlation between a country’s Right to Bear Arms and its murder rates.
So, it’s time to continue digging. What can we do that will improve the murderous tendencies we have in the USA compared to other rich, industrialized First World Countries?
So, it’s time to continue digging. What can we do that will improve the murderous tendencies we have in the USA compared to other rich, industrialized First World Countries?
But until then, we have the clown show. The Right freaking
out on Fox, and the Left wringing hands on MSNBC. Which will, as always, be amusing be amusing.
Some other Factoids...
- Ten Least Violent States (From least to most violent): MAINE, NORTH DAKOTA, VERMONT, NEW YORK, SOUTH DAKOTA, UTAH, RHODE ISLAND, WYOMING, IDAHO, and MONTANA.
- Ten Most Violent States (From most to least violent): SOUTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, NEVADA, FLORIDA, LOUISIANA, ALASKA, DELAWARE, MARYLAND, NEW JERSEY, and MICHIGAN
STATE | GUN LAW RANK | VIOLENT CRIME Per 100 K |
SOUTH CAROLINA | 22 | 766 |
TENNESSEE | 22 | 760 |
NEVADA | 29 | 742 |
FLORIDA | 41 | 712 |
LOUISIANA | 47 | 698 |
ALASKA | 50 | 688 |
DELAWARE | 18 | 682 |
MARYLAND | 7 | 679 |
NEW JERSEY | 2 | 643 |
MICHIGAN | 11 | 562 |
ARKANSAS | 39 | 552 |
MISSOURI | 39 | 546 |
ILLINOIS | 9 | 542 |
CALIFORNIA | 1 | 533 |
TEXAS | 39 | 516 |
ARIZONA | 50 | 501 |
OKLAHOMA | 47 | 497 |
NORTH CAROLINA | 12 | 476 |
GEORGIA | 22 | 471 |
MASSACHUSETTS | 3 | 447 |
PENNSYLVANIA | 10 | 439 |
NEW MEXICO | 39 | 435 |
ALABAMA | 17 | 425 |
KANSAS | 39 | 425 |
COLORADO | 15 | 392 |
NEW HAMPSHIRE | 27 | 352 |
OHIO | 25 | 350 |
WASHINGTON | 15 | 346 |
INDIANA | 39 | 315 |
MINNESOTA | 17 | 312 |
MISSISSIPPI | 39 | 299 |
IOWA | 25 | 284 |
WISCONSIN | 41 | 284 |
VIRGINIA | 19 | 282 |
NEBRASKA | 29 | 282 |
CONNECTICUT | 5 | 281 |
HAWAII | 6 | 281 |
OREGON | 15 | 280 |
WEST VIRGINIA | 39 | 280 |
KENTUCKY | 47 | 263 |
MONTANA | 47 | 254 |
IDAHO | 47 | 247 |
WYOMING | 39 | 240 |
RHODE ISLAND | 8 | 228 |
UTAH | 50 | 224 |
SOUTH DAKOTA | 39 | 171 |
NEW YORK | 4 | 139 |
VERMONT | 27 | 137 |
NORTH DAKOTA | 47 | 128 |
MAINE | 25 | 116 |
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